Speculation abound, folks. On Monday, Google proposed to purchase Motorola. I’m sure everyone in the tech world knows that by now. Not only 4 days later, people are speculating on what should happen next. Yesterday, I raved about five things I’d love to see come out of the Google/Motorola deal and many of you chimed in with your own thoughts.
Some people, however, think Google won’t even get a chance to do anything with Motorola as they believe the company will eventually have to be sold off, sans patents. This would obviously surprise us considering how highly Motorola CEO Sanjay Jha spoke of the deal and how they could help shape the evolution of Android because of it. Perhaps he just meant they would be “helping” by giving Google the patents they need to get back to working on Android without all of the legal stuff on the side.
Their (the analysts’) argument is that Google could risk damaging relationships with their current OEM partners if Motorola ends up improving in market share and revenue.
Although Google has clearly stated that Motorola would be independently run as a separate entity and that they would not box Motorola’s competitors out of the Android ecosystem, it’s possible they could see any bit of special treatment as a sign of favoritism toward Motorola and dump Android in fear that Google will eventually become another RIM or Apple.
For instance, if that Nexus tablet we all want happens to be made by Motorola, competing OEMs will most likely call foul (even if they won’t publicly). And if Motorola gets major versions of Android before everyone else? That’s a riot waiting to happen.
Because of these reasons, some analysts think Google will quickly integrate their newly-acquired patents into their own portfolio and sell Motorola to someone else once that’s complete. Most think Sony Ericsson and Huawei would be best fits for the sale due to their need to strengthen their market presence in regions where Motorola currently shines.
It would be an interesting move by Google if they do end up doing something like that. I can’t imagine Motorola would like to be, and excuse my french, whored out to other companies after being stripped of their patents. But that’s all speculation and, at the end of the day, it’s Google’s call.
Analysts believe the sale of Motorola Mobility without the patents would attract at least $1 billion and could be worth as much as $5 billion.
So this can only be treated as a “what-if” scenario. If OEMs start to get antsy over Google and Motorola, Google might have to sell Motorola in order to make the many partners who make Android successful happy by making them believe there is no favoritism.
Conversely, if OEMs don’t care then Google will probably just sit on Motorola and enjoy the patents all the same. In any case, the buyout has yet to be approved and we shouldn’t even be talking about another sale until this one is completed.
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